Hype vs Fundamentals
Narrative vs. numbers
When does a story get ahead of the numbers behind it, and what happens next? Closed historical cases with known outcomes, then current themes where the outcome is not known yet.
Historical Cases
Closed episodes: price history, fundamentals where available, and hindsight.
The Dot-Com Bubble 1998–2002
Internet-adjacent stocks (and the networking hardware behind them) repriced as if the internet's total future profits had already arrived, years before most of the underlying businesses were consistently profitable.
Indexed to 100 at the start of the window shown. Lines compare relative movement, not dollar price (see the real prices in the stats below).
CSCO — The bellwether: "picks and shovels" for the internet build-out
$77.31
Era peak
2000-03-01
+636%
Run-up to peak
$94.63
Latest price
2026-11-01
+22%
Vs. era peak today
QQQ — Nasdaq-100: the broad index the whole era rode up and down
$109.50
Era peak
2000-03-01
+109%
Run-up to peak
$659.78
Latest price
2026-11-01
+503%
Vs. era peak today
No free structured fundamentals exist for this ticker's era (SEC XBRL data generally only goes back to ~2009–2012).
What happened, in hindsight: AI-generated, grounded in the real figures above and the sources below
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Real retrospective coverage
- I Survived the Dot-Com Bubble. The Lessons I Learned From That Time Are Keeping Me Out of These 2 Tech Giants, and Here's Why
The Motley Fool · 2026-11-02
- How The AI Bubble Could Burst. Lessons From The Dot-Com Stock Market Crash.
Investor's Business Daily · 2026-02-27
- 6 Stock Market Lessons from the Dot Com Bubble That Apply in 2025
Yahoo Finance · 2025-03-28
- Lessons From the Dot-Com Bust
WSJ · 2020-03-09
The Meme Stock Mania 2020–2022
Coordinated retail buying (largely organized on Reddit's r/WallStreetBets) squeezed heavily shorted, structurally challenged companies to prices that had little to do with their actual store counts, debt loads, or earnings.
Indexed to 100 at the start of the window shown. Lines compare relative movement, not dollar price (see the real prices in the stats below).
GME — GameStop: a struggling physical game retailer, the epicenter
$81.25
Era peak
2021-01-01
+7388%
Run-up to peak
$24.56
Latest price
2026-11-01
-70%
Vs. era peak today
AMC — AMC Entertainment: a heavily indebted cinema chain, the co-star
$566.80
Era peak
2021-06-01
+1221%
Run-up to peak
$3.12
Latest price
2026-11-01
-99%
Vs. era peak today
What happened, in hindsight: AI-generated, grounded in the real figures above and the sources below
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Real retrospective coverage
- GameStop mania fed off investor angst. Experts say that unease still fuels ‘gamblifying’ of investing
CNBC · 2026-01-29
- Kohl’s and Opendoor Headline a New Class of Meme Stocks
WSJ · 2025-07-23
- Meme Stocks Are Back. Will Retail Investors Ever Learn The Hard Lessons?
Forbes · 2023-09-21
- Avoid meme stocks and don't over-leverage: Here are the top tips from a 6-figure retail trader
Business Insider · 2026-09-27
The Cannabis Stock Boom 2017–2019
Legalization momentum in Canada and parts of the US drove cannabis growers to valuations pricing in years of rapid, profitable expansion, before most had scaled production, distribution, or a route to actual profit.
Indexed to 100 at the start of the window shown. Lines compare relative movement, not dollar price (see the real prices in the stats below).
TLRY — Tilray: the IPO that became the boom's most extreme single case
$1k
Era peak
2018-09-01
+550%
Run-up to peak
$2.82
Latest price
2026-11-01
-100%
Vs. era peak today
CGC — Canopy Growth: the largest cannabis company by market cap at the peak
$505.20
Era peak
2019-04-01
+724%
Run-up to peak
$0.61
Latest price
2026-11-01
-100%
Vs. era peak today
What happened, in hindsight: AI-generated, grounded in the real figures above and the sources below
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Real retrospective coverage
- What a quick boom-bust in pot stocks told us about policy risk in 2026
Wealth Professional · 2026-01-08
- The Tilray toll: 4 warnings for cannabis stock investors about buying into a new market bubble
CNBC · 2018-09-24
- How to Buy Call Options on Marijuana Stocks
Cabot Wealth Network · 2018-11-01
- Marijuana Stock Highs Are Squeezing Short Sellers. But They’re Still Betting on a Bust
Barron's · 2018-09-19
Current Watch
Open questions: real current data, no verdict rendered.
AI & Semiconductors
Capital spending on AI infrastructure has been real and large. The question this section tracks is whether prices have moved further or faster than the revenue and earnings actually delivered so far.
NVDA — Nvidia: the single biggest beneficiary of AI infrastructure spend
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Price, the past month
+125.9%
Revenue growth (FY2026)
$187.94
Price
157.9x
P/E
SMH — VanEck Semiconductor ETF: a broader basket, not just one winner
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Price, the past month
Unavailable
Revenue growth (latest FY)
$462.97
Price
Unavailable
P/E
Price return is over the period selected above; revenue growth is the latest full fiscal year, different time bases, both real, not directly comparable.
The evidence, both sides: AI-generated, grounded in the real figures above and the sources below (no verdict rendered)
Reading recent coverage…
Real coverage from the past month
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Quantum Computing
Quantum computing is a genuinely early-stage technology. Commercially useful, fault-tolerant quantum computers do not exist yet. This section tracks how far the stocks have run relative to the (currently small and early) real revenue.
IONQ — IonQ: a pure-play, still pre-scale quantum hardware company
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Price, the past month
+98.0%
Revenue growth (FY2025)
$30.68
Price
Unavailable
P/E
RGTI — Rigetti Computing: another early-stage quantum hardware bet
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Price, the past month
-10.1%
Revenue growth (FY2025)
$11.48
Price
Unavailable
P/E
Price return is over the period selected above; revenue growth is the latest full fiscal year, different time bases, both real, not directly comparable.
The evidence, both sides: AI-generated, grounded in the real figures above and the sources below (no verdict rendered)
Reading recent coverage…
Real coverage from the past month
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